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Water08 - AdaptRisk

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Adaptive risk-informed decision making for flood management and water resource planning under climate change uncertainty

Uncertainty on future climate scenarios leads to increased uncertainty in the planning of flood protection, water resources and related measures. Since decisions on water infrastructure are long-term decisions (e.g. structural flood protection measures are designed for a service life time of 100 years, and land use planning has even a longer time horizon), these uncertainties must be addressed in the decision making process. Based on existing climate projection scenarios and hydrological models, the aim of this project is (1) a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with extreme events under climate change and (2) development of methods for identification of optimal watershed management strategies under these uncertainties. Because uncertainties on future climate and vulnerability will decrease as more information becomes available, adaptive decision strategies can be beneficial. Such adaptive strategies include the staggered construction of infrastructure, flexible temporary and operational measures, but also the increased monitoring of climate and watershed behavior. Using the "value of information" concept, such adaptive strategies can be evaluated against more classical fixed measures. In contrast to previous projects, this comparison is performed fully quantitatively, based on rigorous mathematical modeling of the uncertainties and Bayesian decision analysis for assessing the optimality of risk mitigation strategies. The project focuses primarily on the flood risk management. Planning of water resources and hydropower will also be considered, as they are tightly interrelated with each other, but on a less detailed level. While the project is a basic research project, it is expected that the insights gained in this project will influence the future planning of flood mitigation measures in practice. Close collaboration with practice (agencies and private consultancies) shall ensure this.

01-01-1970
14.02.17

Registration now open: IGSSE Forum 2017

29-31 May 2017, TUM Science and Study Center Raitenhaslach, Burghausen

25.04.17

EuroTech postdoc workshop: Success in academia?

20-22 September 2017, Technical University of Denmark, Lynby Campus

18.04.17

Project team ROLITOS in a German documentary

10 May 2017, 11.30 pm Suedwestrundfunk (TV)

30 May 2017, 10.30 pm Bayerischer Rundfunk (TV)

11.04.17

Apply now: McKinsey 'Forschergeist' symposium

9-11 June 2017, Berlin

For doctoral researchers and postdocs!

10.04.17

Register now: ICMSB 2017

26-28 July 2017, TUM Study and Science Center, Raitenhaslach

14.02.17

Registration now open: IGSSE Forum 2017

29-31 May 2017, TUM Science and Study Center Raitenhaslach, Burghausen

05.06.16

10th IGSSE Forum

Smart cooperation - science and technology in, with and for society

15.12.15

The Science of Cooking

Doctoral Candidates explore the Secrets of a great Dinner

26.11.15

ATUMS@IGSSE

Having heard of a great Canadian Kick-Off Meeting, everyone at IGSSE was thrilled to welcome the...

20.11.15

Breakfast at IGSSE´s

Meet the IGSSE team every other month! All the things IGSSE members wanted to asked but never dared...

13.10.15

Save the Date: Canadian ATUMS Speaker on "Global Science- Global Career"

26. November 2015, 6-8 pm, IAS Faculty Club, Garching Campus

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Wednesday, 10. May 2017
Project team ROLITOS in a German documentary
10 May 2017, 11.30 pm Suedwestrundfunk (TV) 30 May 2017, 10.30 pm Bayerischer Rundfunk (TV)
Wednesday, 17. May 2017
Podiumsdiskussion: Frauenförderung - Quo vadis?
17. Mai 2017, 14- 16 Uhr, Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Weidenbach
Friday, 19. May 2017
Tuesday, 23. May 2017
Monday, 29. May 2017
Registration now open: IGSSE Forum 2017
29-31 May 2017, TUM Science and Study Center Raitenhaslach, Burghausen