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Water04 - DMSAM

About

Drought modeling and monitoring by novel statistical and analytical methods

Among the weather-related disasters, drought affects the most people worldwide. In view of an increasing frequency and intensity of drought episodes in many regions of the world including Europe coupled with rising vulnerability, a shift from ad hoc strategies towards mitigation based approaches to drought management is inevitable. The necessary underpinning for these actions is a consistent multivariate spatio-temporal framework for defining, characterizing, backcasting and monitoring drought.
The aim of this project is to develop and apply recent approaches to joint modeling of meteorological variables to enhance the temporal and spatial characterization of drought events, and to validate the impacts of past events on the biosphere. A stepwise modeling approach will be used to model spatial dependency of primary meteorological variables via Gaussian Markow random fields and the multivariate dependency structures of residuals via a new spatial extension of vine copulas to allow for non-symmetric dependence. Novel multiscalar descriptors of drought conditions based on the spatio-temporal dependency structures of primary climatic variables will then be derived from the models.
These drought indices are supposed to supersede existing approaches to drought characterization. The validation of these indices will be facilitated using the response of different systems of the biosphere to identified drought events. Predominantly using proxy data for vegetation response, but also data on atmospheric isotopic composition and archived impact data from various sources, this validation step will be carried out in the temporal and spatial domain alike.

01-01-1970
14.02.17

Registration now open: IGSSE Forum 2017

29-31 May 2017, TUM Science and Study Center Raitenhaslach, Burghausen

18.04.17

Project team ROLITOS in a German documentary

10 May 2017, 11.30 pm Suedwestrundfunk (TV)

30 May 2017, 10.30 pm Bayerischer Rundfunk (TV)

11.04.17

Apply now: McKinsey 'Forschergeist' symposium

9-11 June 2017, Berlin

For doctoral researchers and postdocs!

10.04.17

Register now: ICMSB 2017

26-28 July 2017, TUM Study and Science Center, Raitenhaslach

30.03.17

Apply now: Bavarian Elite Support Act - Scholarship 2017

Universität Bayern e.V. awards 10 research scholarships to highly qualified junior scientists...

30.03.17

1st ExaHyPE Colloquium

3 April 2017, 1pm-5pm, Leibniz Supercomputing Centre, Garching Campus

14.02.17

Registration now open: IGSSE Forum 2017

29-31 May 2017, TUM Science and Study Center Raitenhaslach, Burghausen

05.06.16

10th IGSSE Forum

Smart cooperation - science and technology in, with and for society

15.12.15

The Science of Cooking

Doctoral Candidates explore the Secrets of a great Dinner

26.11.15

ATUMS@IGSSE

Having heard of a great Canadian Kick-Off Meeting, everyone at IGSSE was thrilled to welcome the...

20.11.15

Breakfast at IGSSE´s

Meet the IGSSE team every other month! All the things IGSSE members wanted to asked but never dared...

13.10.15

Save the Date: Canadian ATUMS Speaker on "Global Science- Global Career"

26. November 2015, 6-8 pm, IAS Faculty Club, Garching Campus

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Monday, 03. April 2017
1st ExaHyPE Colloquium
3 April 2017, 1pm-5pm, Leibniz Supercomputing Centre, Garching Campus