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Water04 - DMSAM


Drought modeling and monitoring by novel statistical and analytical methods

Among the weather-related disasters, drought affects the most people worldwide. In view of an increasing frequency and intensity of drought episodes in many regions of the world including Europe coupled with rising vulnerability, a shift from ad hoc strategies towards mitigation based approaches to drought management is inevitable. The necessary underpinning for these actions is a consistent multivariate spatio-temporal framework for defining, characterizing, backcasting and monitoring drought.
The aim of this project is to develop and apply recent approaches to joint modeling of meteorological variables to enhance the temporal and spatial characterization of drought events, and to validate the impacts of past events on the biosphere. A stepwise modeling approach will be used to model spatial dependency of primary meteorological variables via Gaussian Markow random fields and the multivariate dependency structures of residuals via a new spatial extension of vine copulas to allow for non-symmetric dependence. Novel multiscalar descriptors of drought conditions based on the spatio-temporal dependency structures of primary climatic variables will then be derived from the models.
These drought indices are supposed to supersede existing approaches to drought characterization. The validation of these indices will be facilitated using the response of different systems of the biosphere to identified drought events. Predominantly using proxy data for vegetation response, but also data on atmospheric isotopic composition and archived impact data from various sources, this validation step will be carried out in the temporal and spatial domain alike.




EuroTech network event: From excellent research to excellent innovation – are universities ready for the future?

20 September 2017, 6-8pm, Representation of the Free State of Bavaria to the European Union,...


More fun than anyone: IGSSE@ TUM´s dragon boat race

Although the IGSSE team did not make it to Head of the Olympic Lake in 2017 - their fun was...


Apply now: IGSSE travel grant for ICCE 2017

28-29 September 2017, TU Darmstadt

Submission deadline for abstracts: 18 June 2017


10th IGSSE Forum

1 - 4 June 2016, TUM Science and Study Center, Burghausen


10th IGSSE Forum

Smart cooperation - science and technology in, with and for society


The Science of Cooking

Doctoral Candidates explore the Secrets of a great Dinner



Having heard of a great Canadian Kick-Off Meeting, everyone at IGSSE was thrilled to welcome the...


Breakfast at IGSSE´s

Meet the IGSSE team every other month! All the things IGSSE members wanted to asked but never dared...


Save the Date: Canadian ATUMS Speaker on "Global Science- Global Career"

26. November 2015, 6-8 pm, IAS Faculty Club, Garching Campus

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Apply now: TUM-Imperial Global Fellows Summer School
17-21 July 2017, Burghausen, Germany
Wednesday, 19. July 2017
Wednesday, 26. July 2017
Register now: ICMSB 2017
26-28 July 2017, TUM Study and Science Center, Raitenhaslach